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in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change among minority's despite the shifts in eligible voters. if this does get realize, let's say minority vote share goes up by couple of points, 26% as was in 2008 to 28% in 2012, and again if the white college graduate and minority support stays about the same, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been running about four-point. if you look at
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